特斯拉和InternetComputer都是市场颠覆式创新者,差别是特斯拉已经证明了电动车的无限潜力,而IC倡导的区块链云计算的理念还处在萌芽阶段,虽然看似两个完全不同的赛道,但按照财务数据的推演,我们运用了市销率和市盈率两种模型,能够对IC未来发展的一些可能性范本做出预测。感谢@kyle 之前的数据分析,为我的这个分析提供了线索。
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dF9K5mSQrtU
Analysis Excel:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wRpwAQENHvAt6xsYOKG_z4uV_jY3znIk5DLoyS6AzE0/edit?usp=sharing
Twitter:https://twitter.com/MillionMiles
Both Tesla and InternetComputer are market disruptive innovators, the difference is that Tesla has proven the unlimited potential of electric vehicles, while the idea of blockchain cloud computing advocated by IC is still in its nascent stage. Although they seem to be two completely different tracks, according to the extrapolation of financial data, we have applied two models of P/S ratio and P/E ratio and are able to make some predictions on the future development of IC possible paradigms. Thanks to @kyle for previous data analysis that provided me with clues for this analysis.
First, I would like to start my analysis of Tesla's financial data over the years before I start talking about ICP's valuation. I would say that Tesla and ICP have some commonalities.
Therefore I think Tesla has many characteristics that deserve to be used as important benchmark in this analysis of ours.
Below we will analyze Tesla's financial statements (revenue, net income, price-to-sales ratio P/S, price-to-earnings ratio P/E), from which we can understand how an innovative company can go from being unrecognized to being a capital market darling. (Source: https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/)
In 2022, after Tesla's share price drops, although revenue and profits continue to increase, PS and PE also drop to a relatively reasonable level. With this financial data of Tesla we can clearly understand that
So, before we start the ICP analysis, we will have an idea of the valuation of PS and PE at each stage of a company's development, and later I will use the two core valuation models, PS and PE, to analyze the future market value of ICP and the price of ICP.
This illustrates the characteristics of the valuation (P/S and P/E) that the capital market gives to companies at various stages of their development, especially once they have proven their competitiveness in a huge market, they will give a huge valuation premium in advance.
Next, I give you the data projection of ICP supply and destruction, because only by projecting the Token in 2030 number, we can estimate the market value and Token price later.
The initial total supply of ICP is 460 million Tokens, and the incremental rate decreases from about 9% per year to 5% per year in 2029, which means that by 2030, the total supply of the two is 770 million Tokens, which is the supply part.
Then is the burn part, we first look at the bottom of this chart, showing the ICP 2022 Cycle combustion situation, compared to last year is 10 times or even dozens of times the growth, then we make an assumption, that is, combustion according to the compound annualized 100% growth, to 2030, the total supply minus combustion, should Total supply should be 750 million Tokens
The last column of Excel is the number of node machines, because the growth of combustion will certainly drive the increase of node machines, according to the current IC has 1235 node machines, also according to the compound annualized 100% growth, by 2030 there will be 630,000 node machines.
OK, so let's officially start our analysis of ICP's valuation. First of all, let's do an analysis of ICP's market capitalization and Token price in 2030 according to the price-to-sales ratio, or P/S. What I want to share with you is this chart.
This chart shows the current cloud computing market, the market share of each company, and we can see that there are actually three classes:
Then we are clear about the current three classes of Benchmark, and several scenarios of possibilities that ICP will get if it can reach the corresponding market size in the future.
The market size of the cloud computing market in 2030 is roughly $1.5 trillion - $1.6 trillion (data source 1, data source 2)
By bringing in the corresponding market share, we can project the revenue of ICP, and according to 3 times P/S (same as Tesla 2019 P/S), we can get the corresponding valuation, and then according to the total supply of ICP calculated in the previous table, we can get the corresponding Token price projection)
Of course the P/S we bring in is very conservative at 3. Once we give a P/S of 7 or 8 times, the market cap and Token price will increase significantly. This is the value extrapolation according to the P/S model.
To obtain a valuation model projection of P/E, we must know the revenue and cost of IC for the next 2030, so we need to calculate the profitability and cost of nodes. The number of 76 million nodes on the far left of this table shows the estimated number of cloud computing nodes worldwide by 2030 (based on an overall market of $1.5 trillion). The current storage capacity of a node machine is 32Tb, and we assume a utilization rate of 50%, the revenue created by a node machine in a year is 16,000XDR (note: 1XDR = 1T case cycle), which is currently equivalent to 21401 USD, each node machine needs to pay the node operator about 14400 USD a year, that is, each node creates 7001 USD a year, and then according to the market share gained, we can estimate the total net profit (IC network does not need to pay the development and operation cost of Dfnity, so the node revenue is the net profit).
The data from the P/S and P/E valuation models can be used and we can draw an analogy with Tesla's data for 2020:
Tesla
ICP
Finally, I would like to say that the change of technology will not be changed by the will of a certain part of the old power capital, it will be like a prairie fire that will completely change the existing technology landscape, no one can stop the advance of decentralized technology, I am glad that I can participate in this change, and ICP is bound to be the protagonist in this.
特斯拉和InternetComputer都是市场颠覆式创新者,差别是特斯拉已经证明了电动车的无限潜力,而IC倡导的区块链云计算的理念还处在萌芽阶段,虽然看似两个完全不同的赛道,但按照财务数据的推演,我们运用了市销率和市盈率两种模型,能够对IC未来发展的一些可能性范本做出预测。感谢@kyle 之前的数据分析,为我的这个分析提供了线索。
首先,我想在开始分析一下历年特斯拉财务数据,为什么讲ICP的估值要先分析一下特斯拉呢。我想说特斯拉与ICP有很多共性:
因此我认为特斯拉有很多特性都值得在我们这个分析中作为重要benchmark。
下面我们将具体分析特斯拉的财务报表(营收,净利润,市销率P/S, 市盈率P/E),从中我们可以了解一家创新型企业是如何从不被认可变成资本市场宠儿的。(数据来源https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/)
通过特斯拉的这个财务数据我们可以清楚地知道:
所以,在开始ICP分析之前,大家先对PS和PE的在企业发展的各个阶段的估值有个概念,后面我将使用PS和PE这两个核心估值模型对ICP的未来市值和ICP的价格进行分析。
这说明了资本市场在企业发展的各个阶段给与公司的估值(P/S和P/E)的特点,尤其是一旦企业在巨大市场里证明了自身的竞争力后,会提前给与巨大的估值溢价。接下来,我给大家介绍一下ICP供应和销毁的数据推算,因为只有推算出2030年的Token的数量,我们后面才能对市值和Token价格进行估算。
ICP初始总的供应量是4.6亿个Token,增发率从年9%左右,逐年下降,到2029年下降到5%,也就是到了2030年总供应两位7.7亿个Token,这是供应部分。
然后是燃烧部分,大家先看下底下这张图,显示了ICP 2022年Cycle燃烧的情况,相比去年是有10倍甚至几十倍的增长的,那么我们做一个假定,也就是燃烧按照复合年化100%进行增长,到2030年,共计供应减去燃烧,应该Total的供应应该是7.5亿个Token
Excel最后一列是节点机的数量,因为燃烧的增长,必然带动节点机的增加,按照当前IC有1235个节点机,同样按照复合年化100%增长,到了2030年将有63万台节点机。
OK,那我们正式开始对ICP的估值进行分析。首先我们按照市销率也就是P/S,对ICP 2030年的市值和Token价格做一个分析。我想给大家share的是这张图。
这张图的展示的是当前云计算市场的,各家公司的市场份额,那其实我们可以看到其实分为三档:
那我们清楚了当前的三个档次Benchmark,如果ICP未来能达到相应的市场规模的话,会得到的几种设想可能性。
2030年云计算市场的市场规模,大概就是1.5万亿-1.6万美金(数据来源1,数据来源2)
通过带入相应的市场份额,我们可以推算出ICP的营收,按照3倍P/S(同特斯拉2019年P/S),可以获得相应的估值,再根据之前表格计算出的ICP总供应量,可以获得相应的Token价格推算)
当然我们带入的P/S 为3是很保守的,一旦我们给到7或8倍的P/S,市值和Token价格都将大大增加。这就是按照P/S模型进行的价值推演。
要获得P/E的估值模型推算,我们必须知道未来2030年IC的收入和成本,因此我们需要计算节点的盈利能力和成本。这张表最左边7千6百万节点数展示了到2030年全球云计算节点数的估算(根据整体市场1.5万亿美金的数据),当前一个节点机的存储能力为32Tb,我们假定使用率为50%,一个节点机一年创造的收入就是16000XDR(注:1XDR=1T 案cycle),当前相当于21401美金,每一台节点机一年需要支付给节点运营商的费用大概是14400美金,也就是每个节点每年创造7001美金的收入,再根据所获得市场份额,我们可以估算出总的净利润(IC网络无需支付Dfnity的开发运营成本,因此节点收入即为净利润)。最后我们根据一般创新性企业的合理P/E估值倍数(20-30),可以估算出IC的估值,再根据ICP的供应可以获得ICP的价格。
可以通过P/S和P/E估值模型的数据,我们可以将它与特斯拉2020年的数据做一个类比:
特斯拉
ICP
最后,我想说,技术的变革不会以某一部分旧势力资本的意志而改变,它会像燎原之火一样彻底改变现有的技术格局,没有人能阻止去中心化技术的前进,我很庆幸我能够参与到这场变革之中,而ICP必然是这其中的主角。